Date: 2015-10-01 01:36 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
Not so much, sadly, at least on the energy front. Not enough raw materials in the crust of the earth to build the batteries to make the machines go go go as much as we make them go go go on petroleum.

While tech can provide an emergency bridge, nothing we can do in the short term can completely obviate the need for fossil fuels. Lifestyle change is critical to long-term survival.

Date: 2015-10-01 03:03 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] enders-shadow.livejournal.com
Forgive me, but battery tech is changing. Your grand-daddy's batteries are not todays batteries and I rather expect in 30 years, they will be even better yet.

Do you have some source on the raw materials for batteries vs their maximum (current) capacities?

Date: 2015-10-01 10:18 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
Your grand-daddy's batteries are not todays batteries and I rather expect in 30 years, they will be even better yet.

Not fast enough. The present day batteries are only improvements on chemistries that have been known for decades. They are only getting built today because there is now a demand.

There are exceptions, of course. Lead acid gel cels and pastes are new; but the chemistry is over a century old. And Nickle Metal Hydride (NiMH) is a tweak on the old nickle iron batteries Edison developed. The only difference is in the "hydride": inventor Stanley Ovshinski (sp?) added mainly cobalt to the iron to reduce internal resistance. Lithium? Old hat with new brims.

There is one bright spot: Donald Sadoway's molten electrolyte batteries (http://www.ted.com/talks/donald_sadoway_the_missing_link_to_renewable_energy?language=en). These are new and quite promising. The downside? They won't work in mobile applications. Stand-alone grid capacity only.

Bottom line: even if someone discovered a new chemistry that worked well with cars (unlikely) and had cheap and available chemistries (even less likely), changing the entire mobile fleet over to electric would strain the grid and drain every last bit of manufacturing capacity, to the point where no one would be able to afford to drive.

Electric vehicles—and remember, I am speaking as someone who built one and bought another—have great advantages, but enough disadvantages that even the best of them will not be replacing gas overnight, perhaps ever. They can be a buffer technology, helping to weather the dips in petroleum supply we can expect. That will help, sure, but it won't replace.

Nothing will. We either go back to less automobile-centric living or perish in the attempt to not do so. The only question is how well we make the transition.

Date: 2015-10-04 04:00 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] geezer-also.livejournal.com
Your ability to deflate "pie-in-sky fancies" with facts never ceases to amaze me.*
Sometimes I can even understand what you write ;)

*(Even when I think your extrapolations go too far)

Date: 2015-10-04 05:06 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
I am The Deflator! Pies belong not in the sky, but sliced into wedges and presented in front of me! Hot and with ice cream!

Date: 2015-10-05 07:33 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
Ah. That news. I am happy to say I haven't driven those things in 11 years.

If you want my take on the whole hot mess, we can friend each other and you can get an almost-first hand look. Well, you can get my opinions. Which is just as good, right?

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