politicartoons | You Know Him! You Love Him! THUNDERDOME!

No, if you say health costs have doubled, you have made a math prediction. If health costs are going to double, you need to say why or it's a bullshit prediction. Whoever is saying that health costs are going to double needs to provide reasons and math as to why it's happening, or they're just pulling shit out of their ass and are therefore lying through their teeth. This isn't an issue of economics; it's an issue of accounting. If the premium is going from $150.00 to $300.00, more than a say-so needs to be provided to believe that will occur. We're able to tell why the price of gas or a drum of oil has risen. I can tell you exactly why all fees for all private legal services in the state of GA has risen [1] and how much they have risen by. So no, I don't buy that health premiums are going to double auto-magically from hand-waving and no one is able to explain it.

[1] State passed a law increasing the fee schedules at the courthouse. For instance, the amount charged for copied documents that are required by law to be made by the courthouse. Thus, an appeal on average costs $10K more than it previously did.

Well, that's pretty simple. Reason #1: insurance companies will be required to cover previously uninsurable people, and the rest of us will pay to cover them. Reason #2: The market for health care, which already wasn't much of a market because insurance companies intentionally conceal how much you're paying and for what, is even less of a market now that purchasing the product is mandatory. What little incentive there was to deliver a product that appealed to skeptical consumers has now been eliminated.

But these points are rather moot, because the fact that rates are going up is no longer pure speculation. Quotes on 2014 plans that would comply with the Obamacare mandate are already available from some companies, and they represent huge rate hikes for most people (http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2013/07/01/wsj-health-insurance-rates-could-double-or-even-triple-for-healthy-consumers-in-obamacares-exchanges/).

Reason #1: insurance companies will be required to cover previously uninsurable people, and the rest of us will pay to cover them.

And the cost of covering those previously uninsurable people are? Dollars and cents.
And how is that cost spread among the existing insured? Dollars and cents.

Reason #2: The market for health care, which already wasn't much of a market because insurance companies intentionally conceal how much you're paying and for what, is even less of a market now that purchasing the product is mandatory. What little incentive there was to deliver a product that appealed to skeptical consumers has now been eliminated.

That still doesn't provide me with dollars and cents. Y'know, math.

But these points are rather moot, because the fact that rates are going up is no longer pure speculation. Quotes on 2014 plans that would comply with the Obamacare mandate are already available from some companies, and they represent huge rate hikes for most people.

But, the article you provide doesn't really do cost breakdowns. It's saying "2013 rates are lower than 2014 rates in these analyses I'm showing! Must be Obamacare!" That's a conclusion not yet supported by the evidence. By the information in the article, the reason for the increases might be "Because the execs needed more bonus money.", or "Titanium, a major medical industry metal, has seen a spike in price due to rarity." or "We lost our subsidies to make pills in India!", etc.

Nowhere yet have we seen the cost breakdown from the insurers, in black and white, and thus we are not able to assume that Obamacare is the real reason for the rate hike for some people in some places.

Ladies and gentlemen: the difference between an executive and a bean counter.

You Know Him! You Love Him! THUNDERDOME!

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